Power rotation — also called "zoning" — is the unwritten convention that Nigeria's presidency should alternate between the North and South every 8 years (two terms). It is not in the Constitution, but it has shaped every presidential election since 1999.
History of Rotation:
- •1999-2007: Olusegun Obasanjo (South-West) — PDP
- •2007-2010: Umaru Yar'Adua (North-West) — PDP
- •2010-2015: Goodluck Jonathan (South-South) — PDP (completed Yar'Adua's term + won 2011)
- •2015-2023: Muhammadu Buhari (North-West) — APC
- •2023-present: Bola Tinubu (South-West) — APC
The Jonathan Controversy: When Yar'Adua died in 2010, Jonathan (a Southerner) became President and then ran in 2011. Northern politicians argued this broke the rotation because the North had not completed its "full" two-term tenure. This dispute contributed to the 2015 APC merger that defeated PDP.
2027 Implications:
- •Proponents of rotation will argue it's still the South's turn (one more term)
- •Northern candidates will argue for a return to the North
If Tinubu does NOT run (health, party dynamics, or other factors), both zones will claim entitlement. The APC's internal zoning arrangement and PDP's response will define the 2027 race.
Is Rotation Legally Binding? No. Any qualified Nigerian from any zone can run for president. The courts have consistently ruled that zoning is a party arrangement, not a constitutional requirement. But political reality makes it the single most important factor in who runs.