Northern Support for Tinubu Dips Ahead of 2027: A Strategic Setback

Barely nine months out from the 2027 presidential election, President Bola Tinubu faces a significant challenge: northern support, once a cornerstone of his 2023 victory, is visibly eroding. The enthusiastic “Sai Tinubu” chants that echoed through northern streets and marketplaces have faded, replaced by a notable quietude among many political heavyweights. This stark reality contrasts sharply with the widespread, open campaigns northern governors championed for him just a few years ago.

Many within the President's inner circle either fail to grasp this critical shift or deliberately choose to ignore it. Except for Alhaji Bello Matawalle, the Minister of State for Defence, and a handful of others, most northern political figures in the All Progressives Congress (APC) are noticeably uncommitted. The vital grassroots momentum for Tinubu across the North has undeniably waned, raising serious questions about his re-election strategy.

The North's Enduring Political Power

Any notion that President Tinubu can secure a second term with only marginal northern support is a dangerous miscalculation. The North remains the ultimate kingmaker in Nigerian presidential elections, holding the largest bloc of votes and demonstrating a unique capacity for strategic, unified electoral alignment. History confirms this: no president has won without robust northern backing since the Fourth Republic began in 1999.

Goodluck Jonathan (Peoples Democratic Party) learned this lesson in 2015 when his re-election bid collapsed after the North snubbed him, despite strong southern support. Similarly, in 1999, Olusegun Obasanjo (Peoples Democratic Party) secured victory over fellow southwesterner Olu Falae (Alliance for Democracy/All Peoples Party) precisely because northern power brokers, including influential retired generals, endorsed him. Obasanjo even lost his own polling unit in Ogun State, yet northern votes carried him to Aso Rock.

While many northern governors maintain a cautious silence, the five All Progressives Congress governors from the North Central zone have openly declared their support for President Tinubu's 2027 ambition. These include Abdullahi Sule (Governor of Nasarawa State, APC), AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq (Governor of Kwara State, APC), Hyacinth Alia (Governor of Benue State, APC), Umar Bago (Governor of Niger State, APC), and Ahmed Usman Ododo (Governor of Kogi State, APC). However, the body language from other northern governors suggests a sentiment that President Tinubu might serve only one term.

Matawalle's Blueprint for Re-engagement

The lack of enthusiasm extends even to northern appointees holding crucial positions within the Tinubu administration. Many are not actively promoting the President's vision or achievements. This raises a pressing question: why are these key figures not leveraging their platforms to engage the northern electorate?

Political analysts suggest Vice President Kashim Shettima (APC) should take the lead in orchestrating strategic overtures to the northern elite and electorate. This calls for active engagements — town halls, conferences, and structured political dialogues — rather than traditional campaign rallies. Such proactive steps are crucial to counter the opposition's ongoing efforts to consolidate their base.

Alhaji Bello Matawalle stands out as an unapologetic devotee and a template for what northern engagement should be. He traverses northern states, unifying factions within the APC and mobilising grassroots support by highlighting the tangible benefits of President Tinubu’s reform agenda. His message is clear and compelling: Tinubu deserves another term to consolidate the courageous reforms he initiated.

Matawalle effectively communicates the administration's progress, from tackling a near-collapsed economy inherited from the previous Muhammadu Buhari (APC) government and 16 years of Peoples Democratic Party rule to pruning inflation, increasing external reserves, and introducing impactful social security programmes. He champions the bold move to end the corrupt oil subsidy scheme, which has significantly boosted state allocations, and the decisive action against forex round-tripping, clearing over $10 billion in foreign investor backlogs. Other key achievements include the NELFUND student loan scheme, financial autonomy for local governments, increased crude oil production, and general infrastructure upgrades.

This performance-based communication is effective. It is time for other northern governors and appointees to emulate Matawalle’s strategy, taking these development milestones directly to the North’s largest vote vault.